According to Visordown.com, citing an official comment from Yamaha UK, Yamaha has decided not to develop a Euro5+ version of the R1 or R1M. Is this the end of the line for the R1 and R1M, or are we missing something?
WHY AXE THE R1? THE OFFICIAL LINE
The official line from Yamaha for axing the R1 is a desire to focus on other mid-term business and product strategies that will provide future opportunities. What the hell does that actually mean? We’ll explore this later. For now, let’s unpack Euro 5+.
WHAT ARE EURO REGULATIONS?
Euro 5 refers to a suite of regulations that govern the acceptable amount of harmful emissions from light vehicle exhausts, such as carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides, and particulates. These regulations are updated and made more stringent over time, forcing manufacturers to produce more ‘environmentally friendly’ vehicles.
The Euro emissions regulations are mandated across the European Union; however, many countries reference these regulations and implement whole or parts of the rules in their own jurisdictions. For example, Australia has implemented most Euro 5 rules but lags behind in implementing the latest Euro 6 rules. The United States also has its regulations, which are generally less stringent.
This is why certain motorcycles are removed from European markets while remaining on sale in others. The Suzuki GSX-R1000 is one example that is still available in Australia and the US but not in Europe.
WHAT IS EURO 5+
Euro 5 is the latest regulation applicable to motorcycles and came into effect in 2021. Motorcycle regulations are less stringent than regulations for passenger vehicles, which must adhere to stricter Euro 6 regulations. Euro 5 was a big jump up from Euro 4, and it caused many older engines to be dropped because of the cost involved in redesigning them to meet the stricter standard. The motorcycle was killed off if forecasted sales were insufficient to justify the investment. The Suzuki GSX-R600 and 750 are cases in point.
Euro 5+ is not a giant leap over Euro 5. Besides slightly more stringent noise restrictions, the basic regulation regarding emission output levels is unchanged, meaning manufacturers will not have to invest significantly in expensive hardware changes.
Along with changes to emissions sensing parameters, the update requires manufacturers to measure the reduction in emission efficiency over the vehicle’s life. This must be done with ‘real world’ testing, as opposed to theoretical mathematical calculations previously allowed.
Testing must be carried out using a predefined cycle on a programmed test bench of the actual vehicle. The kilometres required to demonstrate efficiency vary with vehicle type, but for medium and high-performance motorcycles, it is 35,000 km. This can be achieved via a full or partial test (50% minimum – 17,500 km). A partial test is projected out to the full kilometres.
Euro 5+, therefore, is designed to wash away any engines whose emission control systems slipped through Euro 5 due to ‘optimistic’ mathematical deterioration calculations.
SO WHAT GIVES?
On the face of it, it does not seem too much to ask of a manufacturer to run the motorcycle for the required emissions testing kilometres, considering the many thousands of kilometres put into the development and testing of each model anyway.
So, if the major change to Euro 5+ relates to onboard diagnostics and actual measured emissions over time, not hard parts, why is Yamaha not investing in this for the R1? The way I see it, there are two scenarios.
SCENARIO 1
The first scenario is that Yamaha knows there is no way on God’s green Earth that the R1 can meet the degradation criteria. Consider the stresses placed on high-performance motorcycle emissions components at 14,000 rpm. Now multiply that by 35,000 kilometres. See the problem?
We have two possibilities in this scenario. Either Yamaha never designed the R1’s emission system to maintain original factory emission levels for the bike’s life, or Yamaha fudged their calculations to pass Euro 5.
Both of these factors are likely in play, in which case Yamaha knows it has been a naughty little boy, and because of this, they are abandoning Euro 5+. If this is true, Yamaha will likely skip Euro 5+, avoid backlash from being naughty, and move to an entirely new Euro 6 platform in a few years.
After all, it makes more sense for Yamaha in this scenario to divert development funding to Euro 6 instead of redesigning the current Euro 5 engine and emissions package for Euro 5+.
SCENARIO 2
The second scenario relates to market demand, or lack thereof. Sales of supersport bikes have indeed declined significantly over the last decade. Manufacturers have been reluctant to invest in new models that may not generate a profit in return. Triumph Daytona 765, anyone?
The lack of development in the R1 is proof of the matter. The current generation was released in 2015, with only one minor update released in 2020. This makes the current R1 platform ten years old, and even older considering the development lead time.
Declining demand could be the reason, but I don’t buy it. Open-class sports bikes have moved upmarket and become more expensive. Sure, they have become out of reach for the average Joe, but plenty of people with lots of money are ready and willing to splurge on expensive sports bikes. That is why Yamaha created the R1M.
Consider the Ducati Panigale. In contrast to the R1, the Panigale has seen four iterations since 2015, including the introduction of an entirely new engine platform (2015 1299, 2018 V4, 2020 V4, 2022 V4), not to mention numerous homologation (V4R) and special models (Superlegeria’s, SP’s, race replicas, etc). In addition, even the BMW S1000RR and Aprilia RSV4 have seen significant updates and variants in the same period (M1000RR, RVSV 1100).
There is still a market for open-class sports bikes; it’s just that the demographic has changed.
WHAT ABOUT RACING?
Another factor to consider is racing. Yamaha needs an R1 to keep doing it, and while this can be solved by selling a track-only R1 as they did with the R6, this is not a sustainable solution. As evidenced by the recent revelation of the final demise of the R6, production superbike racing ultimately needs the buying public to underpin it.
Yamaha can keep running the current R1 for a good while as it will continue to be sold for several years yet, particularly in markets outside of Europe. Long enough to put Euro 5+ behind them and come out with an all-new Euro 6 R1.
Unless Yamaha plans on leaving racing like Suzuki, I don’t see them killing off the R1 for good. Recent ‘official’ rumours of an R9 replacing the R6 in World Supersport racing and their continued investment in MotoGP indicate a desire to continue racing. Yamaha will need a new R1, and people will buy it.
OTHER FACTORS AT PLAY
Now, let us return to Yamaha’s alleged desire to focus on other mid-term business and product strategies that will provide future opportunities.
If you take the time to peruse over Yamaha’s environmental plan 2050, you will find that Yamaha corporation is well and truly hitched to the climate change bandwagon. In the plan, you will find endless research relating to the impact of climate change on their business and their strategies for combatting it.
Yamaha is committing to achieving net-zero CO2 emissions (carbon neutrality) by 2050 by first focusing on rolling out products in Europe, which has a high rate of the use of renewable energy to generate electricity. The plan has two tell-tale charts explaining where Yamaha is heading (see below).
Both illustrate a plan to move away from internal combustion engines (ICE) and towards alternative power, including battery electric vehicles (BEV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV). Of significance is a sharp move away from ICE, which is forecasted to occur in the mid-2030s. Here, we have those future opportunities mentioned in the decision statement. This data tells us that according to Yamaha, there is a minimum of ten years of ICE domination ahead.
Therefore, assuming Yamaha plans to keep racing, a new Euro 6 R1 is on the way. They can’t keep selling the current version forever, and the current package needs updating to compete with the European brands. To stand still is to go backwards.
IS IT A DIVERSION?
I smell something fishy here (and it smells like noxious gasses). I suspect the reason for abandoning a Euro 5+ R1 is because Yamaha has been naughty, and they don’t want to get caught. They know the current R1 has no chance of passing Euro 5+, and submitting it for testing would expose them for not designing it in the first place to meet the intent of the Euro 5 regulations.
Perhaps Yamaha couldn’t design the R1 to meet the intent of Euro 5 because of the cost and complexity of doing so with a high-performance engine. Maybe they did take advantage of the loophole provided by mathematical calculations of future emissions to pass Euro 5. If so, technically, they didn’t break any rules. But the regulation writers must suspect manufacturers have used the loophole to get their machines to market. That loophole is closing.
This begs the question. Will anyone else fail to meet Euro 5+ for the same reasons? It will be interesting to watch the market to see if any other medium and high-performance motorcycles get kicked out of the Euro 5+ club.
THE SILVER LINING
Yamaha’s climate policy will ultimately decide the fate of the R1. Ever-stringent emission regulations have contributed to the proliferation of mid-capacity parallel twin engines that produce less CO2 and are cheaper to produce. But high-end superbikes are aspiring, and there is a market for them. Manufacturers will find ways for them to meet emissions laws.
The good news is that this announcement could be a diversion. The key is that the language used refers to the R1 not being developed for Euro 5+. Yamaha does not say they will not develop an R1 for Euro 6. For all we know, they could already be developing the next R1 for release in the next few years in Euro 6 guise. One can live in hope.
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